Quantum’s computing’s innovation curve is shorter than you think. That’s why you need to move now.

As you know, sometimes I like to start with the “Bottom Line”, today is one of those days.

“Most investors are still staring at today’s tech winners. But like Gretzky said, you skate to where the puck is going, not where it’s been. Quantum is where it’s going, and the window to get there first is closing fast.”

When Jensen Huang – the CEO of Nvidia and the face of the artificial intelligence revolution – spoke back in January about quantum computing being 15 to 30 years away, Wall Street and investors listened. Too closely, in fact.

The entire quantum sector got crushed. IonQ (IONQ), D-Wave (QBTS), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), all down more than 40% in a single week.

This was my coverage of the day Huang let the air out of the quantum computing industry.

But something funny has happened over the last six months (almost to the day). Jensen changed his mind. It’s a signal that every investors needs to take note of.

NVIDIA’s CEO Flips on Quantum Computing Outlook
Huang now says we are “within reach” of applying quantum computers to solve real-world problems. He called this “a really exciting time.” What changed?

That’s the power of what I call the “Innovation Development Curve”, a concept I’ve used to map out how long it takes for a breakthrough technology to evolve from fringe science to mass-market investment opportunity. And if you’re watching quantum computing right now, it’s accelerating right before your eyes.

Full disclosure, my working theory is that Huang wanted to slow the pace of investors discovering quantum computing companies like IonQ Inc. (IONQ) and D-Wave Quantum Inc. (QBTS) to allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to start carving their quantum computing future. Just a theory.

What Is the Innovation Development Curve?
The Innovation Development Curve tracks how long it takes for new technologies to move from theory to reality, then from reality to investing goldmine.

Let’s look at the timeline:

  • The personal computer took nearly three decades to move from science lab novelty to mainstream adoption. IBM, Apple, and Microsoft were early, but it wasn’t until the late 1990s that PCs became part of everyday life—and part of every investor’s portfolio.
  • The internet followed a faster path. From ARPANET in the 1970s to Mosaic in the early 1990s, and boom by the late 1990s, internet stocks were the hottest thing on Wall Street.
  • Artificial Intelligence? Even faster. AI had its winter, but once Nvidia made its GPUs useful for neural networks, the timeline shrank. OpenAI released ChatGPT at the end of 2022. By 2023, it had changed the world. By 2024, Nvidia had become the most important stock in the S&P 500.

See the pattern? Ten years turns to five years which turns to two years.

Each new wave of innovation has taken less time to hit the investment mainstream. And now we’ve reached the next wave: quantum computing.

There’s another pattern that you should note… IBM has been a huge part of each of these innovations.

Quantum Is Hitting Its Inflection Point
Quantum computing is not new. The concept was proposed in the 1980s by physicists like Richard Feynman and David Deutsch. For decades, it was entirely theoretical. Too expensive. Too error-prone. Too hard to build.

Then came breakthroughs: ion traps, superconducting qubits, error correction techniques, and major players getting involved. IBM has committed to building a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029. Google released its error-corrected chip, Willow late last year. IonQ announced deals with Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services. D-Wave and Rigetti made their tech available via the cloud.

And now even Jensen Huang has shifted his stance, openly supporting hybrid quantum-classical computing via Nvidia’s new CUDA-Q platform.

That kind of turnaround—from quantum hater to quantum enabler in just six months, isn’t just a PR move. It’s a signal. One of the most important voices in the AI and chip space now sees quantum as a near-term reality.

That’s what the Innovation Development Curve looks like in 2025: fast, fluid, and investable.

Speculation Drives Stock Prices
Let’s talk about speculation, because this is where most investors miss the boat.

Speculation isn’t a dirty word. It’s the engine that drives early-stage gains. Amazon was a money-losing online bookstore for years before it turned a profit. Nvidia soared for a full year before Blackwell chips even shipped. Tesla? Same story.

As I said in January, right after the selloff: “Investors speculate on what a company may become, not necessarily what it is.”

That’s exactly where we are now with quantum computing. These companies aren’t dominant yet. But they’re moving out of the lab and into real-world application. That’s when speculation kicks in.

Meet the Four Quantum Stocks Leading This Curve
If you want to take advantage of the shortened Innovation Development Curve, these are the four names to watch:

IBM (NYSE: IBM)
The dark horse. While everyone else talks about flashy startups, IBM has been laying the foundation for a quantum monopoly. Its Starling project aims to build a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, potentially 20,000 times more powerful than today’s systems. It’s Nvidia circa 2015, a boring old tech name reinventing itself through infrastructure.

IonQ Inc. (NYSE: IONQ)
IonQ is the most advanced pure-play in quantum hardware. It’s in the “Discovery Mode” of investing, where partnerships with cloud giants and aggressive forecasts spark big price moves. The company expects $1 billion in revenue by 2030. That’s aggressive, but so was Amazon’s original plan.

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS)
D-Wave is already solving optimization problems for companies in logistics and finance. While it doesn’t follow the same quantum logic gate model as IBM or IonQ, its commercial applications are here today. That makes it a trading vehicle and a long-term bet.

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI)
Rigetti has struggled post-SPAC, but it’s making serious strides in quantum processor development. It’s a true underdog story, but it’s also trading at levels that could make a 10X+ move entirely plausible as sentiment shifts.

Three of the “Speculative Seven Stocks” are in Quantum Computing
Three of these names – IonQ, D-Wave, and Rigetti – are part of what I call the Speculative Seven: a handpicked list of stocks I believe will replace the aging Magnificent Seven as Wall Street’s new darlings.

What do they have in common?

  • Ground-floor exposure to future trillion-dollar markets
  • A blend of real-world traction and investor speculation
  • The ability to multiply 10X or more from today’s levels when their technology hits

They’re not “safe” bets. But they’re the kinds of asymmetric plays that speculation investors live for.

Bottom Line: The Early Opportunity Window Is Closing
In the past, you had a decade to figure out the PC trade. Five years to jump on the internet. Maybe two to ride the AI wave.

But quantum computing? You may not even get two years.

Jensen Huang’s reversal shows how fast sentiment can flip. Institutional money is already circling. The sector has had its flush, and now price action is stabilizing around key levels—$5 for D-Wave, $30 for IonQ. That’s classic basing behavior.

Once these names start breaking higher again, and they will, the time for speculation will turn into a time for chasing.

I always say that you need to invest like Wayne Gretzky played hockey…

Most investors are still staring at today’s tech winners. But like Gretzky said, you skate to where the puck is going, not where it’s been. Quantum is where it’s going, and the window to get there first is closing fast.

— Chris Johnson

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Source: Money Morning