The S&P 500 Index just reached a new all-time high…
Yesterday, the index soared above its January 23 high to close at 6,129.57. And it has gained roughly 4% so far in 2025.
But over the past month, some unsettling developments have caused big volatility in stocks…
One was the turmoil surrounding Chinese artificial-intelligence (“AI”) startup DeepSeek. The company announced breakthrough advancements in the speed and cost of AI.
Another development was a series of tariff announcements from President Donald Trump…
And another was the arrival of Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”) cost cutters inside the federal government.
Looking ahead, much is still uncertain about the economic impacts of Trump’s tariff initiatives and their effects on inflation rates.
The next few months will see a tug-of-war between a strong economy and the shifting sands of U.S. monetary, fiscal, and tariff policies. That will challenge the resolve of this bull market.
Put simply, we’re in a time of what I call “headline risk.” And I expect to see more big swings in the market as a result.
But as I’ll explain, I’m still “bullish” on stocks. In fact, my target for the year sees another 11% gain in the S&P 500 from here…
Despite all this uncertainty, the market has performed well.
Stocks have rallied from their January lows. And this happened without the mega-cap stocks leading the way (except for Meta Platforms, which has jumped an incredible 21% since mid-January).
Strong fourth-quarter earnings have fueled a good part of the stock market rally. And the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast of 2.9% first-quarter GDP growth has also helped.
But recent data from the Institute for Supply Management (“ISM”) is the real story – and a major reason why we should expect the gains to continue…
The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 50.9 in January. It was the first expansion in the factory sector after 26 months of contraction.
Even more “bullish” for stock prices, the ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index spiked above 55. This is the highest level in almost three years.
An expanding manufacturing sector is “bullish” across the board for stocks.
Historically, this has been a great sign for the S&P 500. According to SentimenTrader.com, looking out six and 12 months, the index has posted median gains of 6% and 12%, respectively… with 80% positive results.
And it’s particularly “bullish” for mid- and small-cap stocks.
Keep in mind that corporate buybacks totaled more than $900 billion in 2024. And they’re expected to exceed $1 trillion this year. That’s a big demand tailwind for stocks.
Putting it all together, I remain “bullish” on the stock market…
I’m looking for the S&P 500 to approach 6,800 in 2025. That’s roughly 11% above current levels.
The extreme volatility over the past month has created numerous “buy the dip” opportunities… but only if you ignore the headlines.
Good investing,
Marc Chaikin
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Source: Daily Wealth
