“The First Threat to My ‘Melt Up’ Thesis Is Here,” I wrote in DailyWealth last month.

I’m watching five specific early warning indicators for the “Melt Up” – the last explosive stage of this bull market. These indicators will let me know in advance when the Melt Up is on its last legs.

Since I first published those indicators in my True Wealth Systems letter, none of them was ever a threat. All of them were “all clear.”

But last month, that changed…

I shared one of those indicators with you here in DailyWealth – a specific move in shares of transportation companies (like railroads).

You see, transportation stocks thrive when the economy is strong and goods are moving from place to place.

When the economy slows down, transports are one of the first places it shows. It’s an early warning sign for the stock market… like a canary in a coal mine.

Last month, I wrote:

You probably know that the overall stock market peaked in 2000. But you probably don’t know that transportation stocks peaked in May 1999 – long before the overall market did.

The same thing happened in 2007. The overall market peaked in October 2007. But transportation stocks peaked months earlier, in July.

Today, we’re seeing the first sign of underperformance in transports.

At the time, I was specific in my advice. It was the first sign of weakness… But it wasn’t the end. As I said then:

While underperformance in transports is a good early warning sign, it’s not a sell signal…

First, this is just one of the five indicators. Secondly, transports could still turn around and hit new highs, wiping out this short-term concern. And lastly, the overall market has typically peaked months after this early warning signal flashed.

Today, I’m pleased to report that we are back to “all clear” on this indicator. Transportation stocks have now broken out to new highs. Take a look:

In short, the threat I wrote about a month ago is now fully behind us. Transports are healthy today.

My goal is to maximize your gains in the Melt Up – with minimum risk. Early warning indicators like this can help us identify when the top is getting close. Based on this one indicator, we’re not there yet.

This is only one of five early warning indicators that I follow in my True Wealth Systems newsletter. The next issue comes out this Thursday. In it, I’ll update subscribers on all five of our indicators.

Check out the upcoming issue to find out what they say…

Good investing,

Steve

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Source: Daily Wealth