The first half of 2025 was rife with problems.

Investors weathered everything from tariffs and recession fears to an explosion of new global conflicts. If you were looking for reasons to sell, they weren’t hard to find.

Despite that, the U.S. stock market is beginning to seem like an unstoppable force…

Stocks have roared back from the near-bear market of March and April. And they’ve reached new all-time highs once again.

The recent roller-coaster ride ended with a positive return for the first half of the year. And according to history, that means we could see another 7% upside by year-end.

Let me explain…

The Market Soared After This Year’s Rocky Start
The first half of 2025 was volatile. But earnings kept rising, and companies kept betting on the future.

Investors realized that it was smart to keep buying. So stocks quickly recovered from their tariff-induced lows.

The S&P 500 Index had hit new all-time highs by the end of last month. And overall, the index rose 5.5% in the first half of the year. Take a look…

This rocky ride hasn’t been fun. But now that the market has erased its losses, we can expect the gains to keep stacking up.

That’s because stocks tend to keep rising after a positive first half of the year…

To see it, I looked at every instance where we saw 5%-plus gains in the first half of the year since 1950. These setups have happened about half the time over the 75-year period. Here’s what came next…

Stocks tend to keep rising after a good first half of the year. The typical return for the second half of the year is 7.1%. And those gains tend to continue… with a 12-month return of 11.2%.

Both results are much better than the typical buy-and-hold returns for their respective periods. Plus, the market ended the year higher 84% of the time… which means our odds of success are high.

You might still worry about the problems that shook the markets earlier this year. But those problems haven’t turned into worst-case scenarios… And with each passing day, it becomes less and less likely that they will.

Stocks are hitting new highs. Investors as a whole aren’t worried – they’re buying. And according to history, we can expect the gains to continue through the end of 2025.

Good investing,

Brett Eversole

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Source: Daily Wealth