Hope springs eternal in the human breast:
Man never is, but always to be blest:
The soul, uneasy and confined from home,
Rests and expatiates in a life to come.
— Alexander Pope, An Essay on Man
“Hope springs eternal” – first coined in 1733 by Alexander Pope in his poem, An Essay on Man – has become a common phrase to describe one of man’s best characteristics…
Even in the bleakest of situations, humankind has always displayed incredible determination and a belief that better days are ahead.
Through war, famine, plagues, and more, tough times strengthen our resolve that things will eventually start looking up.
And right now, the COVID-19 outbreak is testing our hope.
Traders and investors are no exception. After more than a decade of good times during an historic bull run, the crash caused by the coronavirus outbreak feels like a huge gut-punch.
The market’s original record-breaking nosedive had everyone from giant institutions to those with the smallest of portfolios searching for a bottom. How fast was that drop? 22 days. Here’s how that compares to the fastest drops of all-time:
And now the biggest three-day gain in the Dow since 1933 has given a glimmer of hope and an endless debate about if THE bottom is in.
Whether you think Monday’s bottom is the bottom or not, the news on the coronavirus front is still daunting.
And history is not on the side of the bulls…
What Past Market Drops Say About Our Current Situation
After the huge up day on Tuesday, LPL Financial Group published this data showing what happens after a 10% up day in the Dow:
Long-term – all prior “crashes,” except the market gyrations of the Great Depression, showed markets heading upwards after 12 months.
But the short term outlook is not as rosy.
My analysis tells me that the recent run up could go further – even much further. But I believe that we have not yet put in the bottom for this crisis and that prices will drop below Monday’s low before we head back up.
This is a traders’ market for now. And for investors, I believe you can start accumulating quality names like AMZN, MSFT, and AAPL by buying small parts of your intended position during future dips.
I know it can be difficult to keep a brave face on amid so much suffering and seemingly endless negative headlines – not to mention the knowledge that this crisis is likely to get worse before it gets better. But keep the faith. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
And while we resolutely push forward through this world health struggle, it’s helpful to look back at prior dilemmas to find hope – better days are on their way.
Great trading and God bless you,
— D.R. Barton, Jr.
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Source: Straight Up Profits