Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock jumped 11% on Friday, rebounding after dipping below the $10 threshold on Thursday. The catalyst included news of an expanding manufacturing footprint, highlighted by the acquisition of a second Ohio facility to support scaled production. Yet the bigger story may be the imminent commercial launch in Dubai.

After trading as high as $21 in August, the stock lost half its value, but Friday’s move pushed them back above $10. At current levels, JOBY looks too cheap to ignore for investors willing to accept the risks of this pioneering electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) play.

Pioneering the Urban Air Mobility Market
Joby Aviation and rival Archer Aviation (ACHR) are at the forefront of creating the urban air mobility sector in the U.S. Both companies are developing eVTOL aircraft designed to alleviate traffic congestion by enabling short-hop aerial rides in major cities. They are navigating complex FAA certification processes under the powered-lift category, a new regulatory framework for these novel aircraft.

Joby has advanced further in the FAA’s five-stage type certification process, having completed key milestones including power-on testing of conforming aircraft and entering later compliance phases. Archer is also progressing but trails slightly, focusing on its Midnight eVTOL. Together, the pair are building infrastructure, forging industry partnerships, and proving the technology through test flights.

Their efforts are laying the groundwork for a new transportation mode that could transform how people move in dense urban environments. However, full U.S. commercial operations remain further out, contingent on final FAA approval and vertiport development.

Dubai Launch Marks a Critical Milestone

While U.S. progress continues, Joby appears poised for the world’s first major commercial eVTOL passenger service in Dubai, potentially launching later in 2026. The project with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority is approximately 80% complete, with Joby holding exclusive rights to operate air taxi services for six years. This includes the first vertiport at Dubai International Airport, targeted for completion in Q1, plus additional sites at landmarks like Dubai Mall and Atlantis the Royal.

Joby has already conducted landmark point-to-point flights in the UAE and continues trials. This international debut provides a high-profile proving ground to demonstrate safety, reliability, and customer demand in a global travel hub before broader rollout.

Until now, Joby has generated no meaningful revenue, instead burning cash to develop aircraft, expand manufacturing (with plans to double U.S. capacity), secure certifications, and build vertiports. Recent capital raises have bolstered its balance sheet to fund this transition. The Dubai launch represents a pivotal new phase: the shift toward revenue generation as operations commence and scale.

Bottom Line
Joby Aviation remains a highly speculative investment, so buying aggressively is not recommended. The company still needs to prove robust demand for eVTOL services, achieve consistent profitability (unlikely in the earliest years), and navigate execution risks around its manufacturing ramp-up and regulatory hurdles. Safety, public acceptance, and infrastructure scaling will be critical tests.

But this is the moment Joby has been working toward for years. A successful commercial launch in Dubai could validate the entire eVTOL thesis and serve as a springboard for U.S. and other international markets. Trading near prices last seen around July, the stock appears to offer tremendous upside if Joby executes and the market for aerial taxis materializes as hoped, turning it into a high-growth story.

— Rich Duprey

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Source: Money Morning