Shares of Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) surged more than 7% at Wednesday’s open after news broke of a partnership with Uber. The ride-hailing giant announced it will begin offering Blade helicopter rides on its app as early as 2026, a move made possible through Joby’s recent $125 million acquisition of Blade’s helicopter and air transport business. Notably, the deal excluded Blade’s medical organ transport division.

Blade flew more than 50,000 passengers last year from 12 urban terminals, giving Joby immediate scale as it works to transition those routes from helicopters to its quiet, zero-emission eVTOL aircraft.

Uber’s interest in air travel isn’t new. It first partnered with Joby in 2019 and later sold its own “Elevate” flying taxi division to Joby in 2020. Uber COO Andrew Macdonald said the latest partnership brings customers into the “next generation of travel.”

Industry and Regulatory Backdrop
Joby is competing with several eVTOL developers like Archer Aviation (ACHR) to be first in the market.

Supporters say the technology will reduce traffic congestion and carbon emissions, but the timeline still depends on FAA certification, which remains the biggest hurdle for commercial launch.

The estimated certification timeline is below.

  • Current stage: Joby has completed stage 3 of the FAA’s 5-step process and is now in stage 4 (for-credit testing).
  • Late 2025: First conforming aircraft will be flown by Joby pilots, followed by FAA test pilots.
  • Early 2026: FAA Type Inspection Authorization (TIA) flight tests expected to begin.
  • Target: Full FAA type certification and initial commercial launch in mid-to-late 2026, starting with major U.S. cities.

Joby remains on track for FAA approval in 2026, with major milestones in late 2025 to early 2026 likely to drive the stock.

Technical Picture: Nothing More than a Healthy Correction
After closing at a record high of $20.39 in early August, JOBY shares slid into a 35% correction. While steep, this type of pullback is considered normal for early-stage growth stocks.

Importantly, the stock remains above its 200-day moving average near $10, keeping its long-term uptrend intact.

  • 50-day moving average: Turned bullish in late May, fueling a 209% rally into the August highs. This trendline is still bullish.
  • Support Price: The stock has repeatedly found buyers near $12.50, a level that briefly acted as resistance in July.
  • Next Resistance Level: The next test is at $15, where three obstacles converge psychological round-number resistance, the 20-day moving average at $14.65 (currently trending lower), and the 50-day moving average at $15.15 (still bullish).

Joby’s current price chart suggests that the stock is more likely to stay below $15 with increased volatility, but long-term investors may not want to wait too long to grab shares at this price.

Joby’s Price Outlook
Seasonality remains a headwind. Historically, August–September is weak for speculative names like Joby, even as the Nasdaq 100 trades at all-time highs. That pressure should ease in October as earnings season begins and Fed policy clarity improves.

  • Short-term traders: Look for entry opportunities near $12, with resistance at $15 marking the near-term ceiling.
  • Long-term investors: May not want to wait for a perfect entry. Joby’s past pullbacks have often run 40–50% before recovering, and the current decline fits that pattern.

Joby Aviation’s Bottom Line
Joby is no longer a fringe penny stock.

The company’s story is well known to both retail and institutional investors, meaning buyers are quicker to step in during corrections.

For investors with a multi-year horizon, the risk/reward setup favors the bulls.

Accepting some short-term volatility could be the price of admission to the next phase of long-term gains, potentially another 3X move or more as the company moves closer to FAA certification and commercial launch.

— Chris Johnson

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Source: Money Morning