The President of the United States launched a memecoin the day before taking office.

That’s not a sentence I ever expected to write. But here we are.

We will not get into the many ethical reasons that he shouldn’t have done that, why it means he has the wrong people advising him on crypto policy, or the massive conflicts of interest the token launch implies.

Rather, we will look at what happened through a sentiment lens…

As it reminds me of an event from the last crypto bull run… telling us where we are in this crypto cycle.

Crash Course
If you aren’t familiar… memecoins are cryptocurrencies inspired by internet memes, cultural phenomena, or viral trends.

Unlike Bitcoin or Ethereum, which aim to solve real-world problems, memecoins typically have no inherent utility or technological breakthroughs. Their value is derived almost entirely from hype, humor, and social media buzz.

Think of them as the financial equivalent of a joke going viral – they catch fire because people love the absurdity, and that momentum can sometimes generate life-changing gains.

The most famous examples are Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB). Dogecoin started as a joke in 2013 but skyrocketed in 2021 during the crypto bull market, thanks to endorsements from figures like Elon Musk.

What began as a parody coin hit a market cap of over $80 billion at its peak.

Similarly, Shiba Inu, branded as the “Dogecoin Killer,” rode the memecoin hype to become one of the top-performing assets of the 2020-2021 bull cycle, turning early investors into millionaires.

While memecoins may seem like a joke, their track record in crypto bull markets is nothing to laugh at. They often deliver some of the largest percentage gains during speculative rallies. This happens because their low price and viral potential attract retail investors, fueling parabolic moves that feed on themselves.

And now, Trump’s memecoin launch gives us a big sentiment clue as to where we are in the crypto cycle.

Echoes of the Past
I’ve gone on record multiple times saying we are likely in the bottom of the seventh inning of this crypto cycle.

And Trump launching his memecoin all but confirms that. We had a similar event in the previous crypto cycle when Elon Musk went on Saturday Night Live. During his appearance, he tried to “pump” Dogecoin (DOGE), a cryptocurrency he’d grown fond of.

This move by Elon was near the top of the last crypto bull cycle…

This is not a coincidence. Sentiment peaks and troughs are always near the peaks and troughs for the market cycle.

The trick is being able to recognize where you are in the market cycle.

— Robert Ross

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Source: Total Wealth