You don’t fight a bull market…

Rising prices usually lead to even higher future prices. It’s the herd mentality in action. And that explains why momentum is one of the most powerful forces in investing.

Still, the momentum has to start somewhere. So it’s nice to know why a bull market gets going.

For stocks, it’s usually obvious. You can often point to an improving economy or a new trend that has folks excited to buy… And usually, those things lead to improving fundamentals.

Simply put, stock bull markets always happen on the back of rising revenues and earnings. Investors buy when companies are doing better today than they did last year.

Commodities like gold are different. Last week, I explained that retail investors simply aren’t buying the metal… But gold has been soaring anyway.

Today, we’ll cover the real reason behind gold’s incredible rally…

Gold is nothing like a stock. Gold doesn’t have earnings… or fundamentals.

That means gold bull markets only happen for one reason: There are more buyers than sellers. And that’s why the current bull market is puzzling.

Last week, I shared that coin dealers like Van Simmons of David Hall Rare Coins are noticing a slowdown in demand… despite the 28% rise we’ve seen in gold this year.

Retail investors simply aren’t buying physical gold like we’d expect in a gold bull market. The normal drivers of a boom are absent.

So what gives? If it’s not retail investors, what’s causing gold’s historic rise?

The buying is coming from a corner of the investment world that couldn’t be more different from retail… global central banks.

Global central banks are massive players in the gold market. They buy to fill their vaults and protect their nations from foreign interference.

Sure, gold was dethroned as money back in the 1970s, when the U.S. went off the gold standard. But it’s still crucial for major nations to hold gold stockpiles to protect their global economic interests. At the end of the day, you can’t fake gold…

Because of that, global central banks tend to buy gold consistently. But those purchases have ramped up in recent years.

You can see it in the chart below. It shows how much gold central banks have bought each year since 2011. Take a look…

From 2011 to 2019, global central banks consistently bought gold. The average annual purchase was about 540 tonnes over that period. Then, buying collapsed during the pandemic, with just 255 tonnes of gold purchased in 2020.

This was when the metal first broke out to $2,000 an ounce. That happened because of retail buying, not central banks. But the roles have reversed in the years since…

Central-bank buying exploded in 2022. Purchases topped 1,000 tonnes for the first time ever that year. They broke the 1,000-tonne mark again in 2023. And based on the strength of the first three quarters of 2024, central-bank buying is likely to break that level once more this year.

In short, central banks have roughly doubled their gold buying since 2021. All this demand is the true driver behind the historic boom we’ve seen in gold over the past two years… And it has created a massive backstop of buyers in the market.

So, what happens next? To me, it’s obvious…

Remember, you don’t fight a bull market. That’s because as prices keep rising, more and more folks get excited and begin buying.

The boom we’ve seen so far is all thanks to central banks. But retail investors will show up to the party – and it’ll likely happen soon. They’ll get sucked in by the allure of easy profits. And that’s what will cause the eventual crescendo to this gold bull market.

Once the excitement kicks in, prices will rise past $3,000 an ounce… potentially to $4,000 an ounce or higher.

We’re not there yet. Not even close. And that’s why you want to own gold as we head into 2025.

Good investing,

Brett Eversole

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Source: Daily Wealth