The final session of the Investment U Conference in Ojai, California, last week was a stellar panel discussing the impact of AI on trading and investing.
We were asked whether Nvidia (NVDA)’s relentless rise was a sign of froth in the market… and where we thought Nvidia stock would be trading in a year.
While my fellow panelists urged caution…
I shocked the audience with my response.
I said Nvidia would be at $1,525.87… 92% higher than where it was trading that morning.
Skeptical? Let me show you why I’m so bullish…
Best, Fastest, Shiniest
Nvidia’s meteoric rise can first be attributed to the market’s focus on the AI narrative that grabbed investors’ attention in early 2023.
Coming off a dour 2022 – with markets reeling from Fed rate hikes – investors were looking for any kind of bullish catalyst… for some group or sector to lead markets higher… for something positive in the future to bet on.
They found that in the introduction of ChatGPT in November 2022… which pulled the curtain back on AI.
Nvidia became the semiconductor maestro of that AI narrative chorus that had Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, Tesla and Apple singing along. The “Magnificent 7” led benchmarks higher through 2023.
Since everything AI is semiconductor driven, and Nvidia’s GPU chips are the best, fastest, shiniest graphics chips on the planet, it made perfect sense the company would see demand for its chips explode.
And, of course, it did.
Finding Gold
Smart investors quickly realized that chipmakers (or “designers,” in Nvidia’s case) were the “pick and shovel” plays of AI. But Nvidia’s chips found the most gold.
From gaming and data centers to autonomous vehicles and everything AI, Nvidia’s solutions became synonymous with innovation and efficiency.
The company’s GPUs have proven critical for AI and high-performance computing tasks, making them indispensable for industries pushing the boundaries of technology.
And despite challenges posed by global economic uncertainties and supply chain disruptions, Nvidia demonstrated its resilience and adaptability. The company’s ability to navigate through turbulent Covid and post-Covid times and maintain consistent growth underscores the strength of its business model and leadership.
Plus, Nvidia’s strategic acquisitions and partnerships have bolstered its portfolio and positioned it as a key player in emerging technology markets such as autonomous driving and edge computing.
And then there’s the company’s earnings…
They’ve been fantastic.
Check out Nvidia’s fiscal fourth quarter results just released two weeks ago…
- Record-breaking revenue: Nvidia reported record quarterly revenue of $22.1 billion, up 22% from the previous quarter and an astonishing 265% from the same period last year.
- Data center dominance: The data center segment stood out with record quarterly revenue of $18.4 billion, soaring 27% from the previous quarter and an impressive 409% surge from a year ago.
- Full-year success: Nvidia’s full-year revenue for fiscal 2024 reached $60.9 billion, up a staggering 126% from the previous year, showcasing sustained growth and market dominance.
- Earnings growth: Both GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share exhibited remarkable growth, with GAAP earnings up 765% from a year ago and non-GAAP earnings up 486%.
- Positive outlook: Nvidia provided a bullish outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with revenue expected to be around $24 billion. That’s proof of the company’s continued momentum and confidence in its future prospects.
Simply stunning.
Overdelivering the Goods
While Nvidia’s valuation may seem steep, keep in mind the company’s growth potential and its position in the tech sector.
As Nvidia continues to innovate and capture market share, investors have been willing to pay a premium for the stock… with the expectation of continued growth and profitability.
The morning of the Investment U panel, I checked Nvidia’s price.
I calculated a smoothed-out average rate of change of the company’s earnings over the previous eight quarters and came up with 25% earnings growth per quarter. I compounded that over the next four quarters and assigned a P/E multiple of 50 on those future earnings a year from now.
Even though Nvidia’s forward P/E was 35x at the time, I’m assigning a 50x multiple on forward earnings based on, again, investors being willing to pay a premium for shares that consistently overdeliver.
That’s how I figured Nvidia stock could easily double in a year.
So forget the talk about Nvidia being “overpriced.” I wouldn’t turn my nose up at 100% gain in a year…
And neither should you.
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— Shah Gilani
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Source: Total Wealth