At some point this year, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will unveil its next game-changing product, triggering the start of yet another big price rally.
You’ll want to buy Apple stock before that happens.
Despite Apple’s legendary secrecy, accurate information about products the company is working on does leak out. This is especially true the closer the product gets to its release date.
Of all the big tech stocks, none is the object of more speculation than Apple. So there’s a lot of noise out there mixed in with those rare golden tidbits that actually give investors valuable insight into Apple’s future prospects.
As an Apple analyst, fan, and customer since 1985, I have a pretty good idea of what makes the company tick. Experience has taught me to view the numerous rumors with skepticism – and how spot the few with legitimate potential.
The leak I’m talking about is almost certainly Apple’s next major product category, and the first for the tech giant since the debut of the Apple Watch in 2014.
Before the end of 2021, we’re going to see something called “Apple Glass” – augmented reality eyeglasses.
This information comes from prolific Apple leaker Jon Prosser, who posts what he learns in his own “Front Page Tech” YouTube channel.
According to the AppleTrack website, Prosser is the sixth most accurate leaker of Apple news, with a 79.2% accuracy rate.
And his report on Apple Glass is surprisingly detailed. Before I go into the implications of this product, let’s go over Prosser’s report…
Here’s All the Leaked Info on Apple Glass
One the intriguing things about Prosser’s Apple Glass video is that he didn’t just report some leaked features from an insider. He says he saw the device himself. And his description is full of details that support that claim.
Another thing that struck me was that Prosser made no outlandish claims for a crazy-looking, futuristic device. In fact, his mundane description of how Apple Glass will look was one of the things that rang true to me.
According to Prosser, Apple Glass won’t stand out at all. The device will pretty much look like regular eyeglasses. Only the wearer will see the AR data.
And get this: If you wear eyeglasses, Prosser says you’ll be able to get an Apple Glass version of your prescription.
Prosser also said Apple glass will use LIDAR rather than a conventional camera. LIDAR stands for Light Detection and Ranging, and is one of the technologies used in self-driving cars.
To me, these two details fit well with what I would expect from Apple here. Recall the two most prominent previous attempts at “smart glasses” – Google Glass in 2013 and Snapchat’s Spectacles in 2016. Both flopped spectacularly.
Two of the biggest reasons for their failure were that they looked more dorky than cool and that the ever-present cameras raised serious privacy concerns. If Prosser is right, Apple has addressed both.
Prosser also says Apple Glass will require a paired iPhone to process all the AR data. This also makes sense, because it avoids bulky electronics on the device itself and follows the example set by the first model of the Apple Watch.
Some other details in the Prosser video:
- AR displays will appear on both right and left lenses.
- The name for the user interface is “Starboard,” strikingly similar to the “Springboard” name for the iPhone’s UI.
- Users will control it with gestures both on and in front of the device.
- AR won’t work on tinted lenses.
- Glasses will charge wirelessly on a special Apple-provided stand.
- Price will be a reasonable $499 (prescription extra, of course).
To me, it all sounds exactly like a wearable device Apple would sell.
As for the timing, Prosser said Apple very much wants to unveil this device at an event at which the media is present – something pandemic-induced limits on indoor events has prevented.
But assuming Apple Glass is otherwise nearly ready to launch, I expect to see it either in June at Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference or – most likely – at the annual new iPhone event in September.
With Apple’s other businesses hitting on all cylinders, another major product category like Apple Glass will supply the fuel to drive yet another Apple stock price rally – this time to $200 and beyond.
Why Apple Glass Will Be a Hit
I think Apple Glass will evolve into a significant business over the next three to five years, just like the Apple Watch before it.
The Apple Watch started with so-so sales in 2015 and 2016. The tech and financial media declared it a failure (I disagreed, of course).
Apple Watch unit sales grew from 10 million in 2016 (its first full year) to 43 million last year, according to FactSet data. The Apple Watch also generated $13.89 billion in revenue in FY 2020 – more than such well-known companies as Kellogg Co. (NYSE:K), MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM), and U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X).
I expect Apple Glass revenue to follow a similar trajectory.
This matters to investors because Apple Glass, as a not-yet-announced product, is not factored into Wall Street’s revenue and profit estimates yet.
And I do think the device will be a success. For one thing, it’s competitively priced. Yes, there are AR smartglasses in the market today and they’re priced from $380 (Snap Spectacles 3) to $900 (Vuzix Blade).
These rivals lack Apple’s knack for creating style (see: ubiquitous AirPods) and its dominant brand. Back in 2014 I predicted Apple would dominate wearable tech for just this reason (it has one-third of the market in a crowded field, more than double its closest rival).
But most of all, they lack Apple’s unrivaled ecosystem. Apple Glass will become yet one more piece of the hardware/software/services integration that sets the company apart.
While Apple Glass will rely on the iPhone for computing horsepower, it will also work with the iPhone in serving as a more convenient way to relay information. As a wearable, I suspect Apple Glass will also have some health monitoring components like the Apple Watch.
In other words, it will be yet another aspirational Apple product that both links into and enhances the overall ecosystem.
But while Apple Glass is the main reason to buy Apple stock, it’s not the only one. And I’m not just talking about the resurgence of iPhone sales…
More Reasons to Buy Apple Stock
Here’s the breakdown:
iPhone underestimated (again): Recently Apple analysts have been scrambling to raise their price targets on the stock as they realize 2021 iPhone sales will be a lot higher than they thought. The 5G upgrade “supercycle” they once dismissed is now a reality. Just six months ago the consensus estimate was for fewer than 200 million Phones; now it’s 220 million.
I believe estimates for 2022 are too low as well, thanks to one nearly forgotten market: India. After more than a decade of fits and starts, Apple is finally poised for big gains in India, where it has less than 3% of the smartphone market. This year Apple will start opening retail stores in India; an online store opened last quarter. This market offers huge potential, with annual sales of more than 200 million smartphones and double-digit growth. With more sales channels and a more competitive option in the iPhone SE, Apple figures to add much more revenue from India over the next few years than most analysts realize.
Revenge of the Mac: Apple has started its two-year transition away from Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) processors to its self-designed M1 chips. In preliminary tests, the first wave of M1-based Macs have proven just as fast as Intel-based machines while using less than half the power. For laptops, that means double the battery life. That killer feature will draw a flood of new customers to the Mac over the next few years. I think it could double the Mac’s relatively low global market share of 7.6% within three years, which could add more than $20 billion to Apple’s top line.
Don’t forget healthcare: Apple set its sights on the healthcare market back in 2019, with CEO Tim Cook declaring that healthcare would someday be known as “Apple’s greatest contribution to mankind.” That’s a mighty big claim. And so far, Apple hasn’t seen a major revenue boost from it, save for Apple Watch sales. I think that will change in the years ahead. Current rumors suggest the next version of the Watch will get a non-invasive blood sugar sensor. That would make the Watch a must-have device for tens of millions of people – with insurance footing the bill for many of them. As I said earlier, the Apple Glass device is also likely to have healthcare features. One thing is for sure: Cook would not have made that boast unless he was certain Apple would make good on it. And the potential is enormous. In 2019 Morgan Stanley estimated Apple could reap about $90 billion in fresh annual revenue from healthcare.
Apple Glass VR: In addition to the Apple Glass I’ve described, Apple is thought to be working on a second headset that will use virtual reality. This rumor comes from another reliable source, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman (89.1% accuracy rate on AppleTrack). This device will more closely resemble Facebook Inc.’s (NASDAQ: FB) Oculus Rift and have a price tag north of $1,000. It’s expected to be more of a niche product, but the high price tag should bring higher margins than Apple usually makes on hardware. Gurman suggests we won’t see this product until 2023 or so.
How to Play AAPL Stock Now
Apple stock is up 78% over the past 12 months and 230% over the past three years.
It raises the question of how much more upside can there be, even with all the catalysts I’ve talked about here. But I see Apple going to $200 by the end of 2022 – and then higher from there.
But with the Apple stock price at $142, it’s fairly overbought at the moment. Even at current prices, you’re looking at gains of about 40% plus the small 0.57% dividend yield.
While investors certainly can establish a position here, buying (or adding more) on a pullback is probably the best way to play AAPL here. There’s strong support at about $130, so you could set up a limit buy at about or just above that price level.
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Source: Money Morning