You can invest in just about anything these days – fine wine, stocks, artwork, even the outcome of the 2012 Presidential election.
That’s right. Whether you’re a diehard Republican or a true-blue Democrat, www.intrade.com allows you to actually “bet” or trade shares on various outcomes of the upcoming election season!
You can buy or sell shares – based on your own personal prediction – on outcomes of other world events, too.
Today, I’ll cover who’s going to be seated on Air Force One in 2013.
It’s an all or nothing proposition, though.
[ad#Google Adsense 336×280-IA]If you “win,” you win $10 per share. If you lose, you get $0 per share. That is, if you hold onto the position to the end.
You can bail out on a bet early if you want, as long as you’re content with earning back the current market price.
Now, please understand that I’m not carelessly recommending you place a bet based on the pollsters – that’d be amateurish.
Instead, let’s track the likely outcome based on investor sentiment and its political impact in the months ahead. Let me explain…
The GOP is Stumbling
As it stands now, the Republican Party is in total disarray. Not a single candidate is close to getting more than 30% of the vote for the nomination.
Worse yet, the candidates don’t even seem prepared at the debates. Not to mention the scandals that just won’t go away.
Despite it all, however, someone is beginning to emerge from the Republican fray. Indeed, the odds are in…
As it stands right now, Mitt Romney has a 71% chance of winning the nomination – up from just 30% before Perry and Cain made their respective assaults.
So while Romney hasn’t gained any more support in polls from his fellow party members, he is the odds-on favorite to emerge from the pack if you pay attention to what those putting their own money on the line are saying…
How are the Democrats faring in the action?
Well, the Obama trade is presently right around 50%, and moving up steadily, suggesting that the odds of an Obama re-election are getting stronger.
Especially since the Republicans have launched their recent spates of mutually destructive debating.
As you can see, Obama’s star is back on the rise since the major dip of late September…
In fact, his upward momentum actually seems to be mirroring that of the S&P 500!
Betting on Obama today would cost you just over $5. And your maximum profit would be a double if he won. Essentially, you’d be entitled to get $10 back for each $5 you invested.
Romney, on the other hand, would offer an even bigger payback – almost 3-to-1 if he were to take the White House.
As for Cain and Perry, investors are giving both of them less than a 5% chance of becoming President. So if you’re looking for a 20-to-1 shot, or more, Perry’s your man!
I’ll be tracking the site myself to see how accurately it predicted the outcome in question based on investor sentiment, and not necessarily that of the pollsters.
Just a head’s up… www.intrade.com definitely has some quirks and restrictions. So take extra due diligence before placing any bets.
Also, neither myself nor Wall Street Daily have any relationship with the company. I just thought it warranted a mention.
Good investing,
— Karim Rahemtulla
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Source: Wall Street Daily