When the U.S. dollar is going down, the price of gold goes up.
The reason is simple… It’s basic math.
That’s the logic, anyway. But does the logic actually work in the financial markets?
Sometimes it doesn’t… As the economist John Maynard Keynes famously said, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
But as it turns out, the logic works with gold and the dollar…
Gold’s compound annual return since the early 1970s has been about 6.9% a year. But when the dollar is weakening, gold goes up at 12.2% a year. And when the dollar is strengthening, gold only goes up 1.8% a year.
This table shows it simply…
To identify uptrends and downtrends, we looked at whether the dollar was above or below its 10-month moving average at the end of a month. Then, starting at the date of that signal, we measured gold’s performance over the following month.
You can see dollar downtrends led to strong gains in gold…
So… why is this important today?
Because we are now in one of those times when gold has historically delivered double-digit compound annual gains.
“The dollar could be starting a multiyear bear market,” my colleague Brett Eversole wrote yesterday…
The greenback recently hit its lowest level since early 2015. It has now clearly broken down from a multiyear uptrend…
Major currencies tend to move glacially. They have slow, long-term moves higher or lower… not drastic crashes or spikes.
So this year’s decline isn’t something that happens often. The dollar is down 9% in just the first eight months of the year – a massive fall for a major currency.
His conclusion was that the dollar could decline for the next two years.
If that’s true, then gold could be starting a multiyear bull market.
Don’t be too worried about the short-term fluctuations… We actually think the dollar could go up a bit more before it resumes its fall. But the dollar’s long-term trend is clearly down. And we are finally on board with gold again.
Gold could be starting a multiyear bull market. You want to be on board.
Source: Daily Wealth