At this time last year, the U.S. was in the midst of the most severe and extensive drought to hit the country in the past 25 years. The inclement conditions had a serious impact on the agricultural sector, reducing crop yields and driving up prices.
This year, lack of rain is not an issue. In fact, heavy rains and flooding have delayed planting, damaged crops already in the ground and prevented farmers from sowing all their seeds.[ad#Google Adsense 336×280-IA]One company that benefits directly from farmers’ need to combat Mother Nature’s whims and increase crop yields is Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT).
After hitting a low below $30 in 2010, shares of the world’s largest fertilizer company staged a key breakout from the $37 level in August of that year.
They went on to more than double from those lows, hitting highs near $63 in 2011.
Since late summer 2011, POT has traded in a range between $37 and $50.
It is currently sitting just above key support at the bottom of that channel. A move to the top of that range at $50 is the first target, and a break of that resistance level targets a run to the 2011 highs near $63.
The initial $50 target is about 32% higher than current prices, but traders who use a capital-preserving, stock substitution strategy could more than double their money on a move to that level.
One major advantage of using long call options rather than buying a stock outright is putting up much less capital to control 100 shares — that’s the power of leverage. But with all of the potential strike and expiration combinations, choosing an option can be a daunting task.
Simply put, you want to buy a high-probability option that has enough time to be right, so there are two rules traders should follow:
Rule One: Choose an option with a delta of 70 or above.
An option’s strike price is the level at which the options buyer has the right to purchase the underlying stock or ETF without any obligation to do so. (In reality, you rarely convert the option into shares, but rather simply sell back the option you bought to exit the trade for a gain or loss.)
It is important to buy options that pay off from a modest price move in the underlying stock or ETF rather than those that only make money on the infrequent price explosion. In-the-money options are more expensive, but they’re worth it, as your chances of success are mathematically superior to buying cheap, out-of-the-money options that rarely pay off.
The options Greek delta approximates the odds that an option will be in the money at expiration. It is a measurement of how well an option follows the movement in the underlying security. You can find an option’s delta using an options calculator, such as the one offered by the CBOE.
With POT trading at about $37.90 at the time of this writing, an in-the-money $30 strike call option currently has $7.90 in real or intrinsic value. The remainder of the premium is the time value of the option. And this call option currently has a delta of about 85.
Rule Two: Buy more time until expiration than you may need — at least three to six months — for the trade to develop.
Time is an investor’s greatest asset when you have completely limited the exposure risks. Traders often do not buy enough time for the trade to achieve profitable results. Nothing is more frustrating than being right about a move only after the option has expired.
With these rules in mind, I would recommend the POT Jan 2015 30 Calls at $9 or less.
A close below $30 in POT on a weekly basis or the loss of half of the option’s premium would trigger an exit. If you do not use a stop, the maximum loss is still limited to the $900 or less paid per option contract. The upside, on the other hand, is unlimited. And the January 2015 options give the bull trend more than a year and a half to develop.
This trade breaks even at $39 ($30 strike plus $9 options premium). That is only a little more than $1 above POT’s current price. If shares hit the breakout target of $50, then the call options would have $20 of intrinsic value and deliver a gain of more than 100%.
Recommended Trade Setup:
— Buy Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) Jan 2015 30 Calls at $9 or less
— Set stop-loss at $4.50
— Set initial price target at $20 for a potential 122% gain in 18.5 months